On August 7, the General Administration of Customs of China announced the import and export data of my country's goods trade in July 2024. The data showed that in July this year, the export value of China's automobiles increased by 14.32% month-on-month, while in June this year, the export value of complete vehicles was US$8.73 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 17.16%. Analysts pointed out that the month-on-month growth rate turned from negative to positive to achieve a "big reversal", and China's automobile exports restarted the "accelerator" in July.

In the first half of this year, China's automobile exports ranked first in the world. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Chinese automakers exported 2.793 million vehicles overseas in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 31%; data released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association showed that Japan's automobile exports in the first half of 2024 were 2.01 million vehicles. This means that in the first half of 2024, China's automobile industry once again surpassed Japan.

At present, China's new energy vehicle industry is at a critical turning point, and opening up overseas markets has become an inevitable choice for the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. Analysts pointed out that in the face of overseas barriers, if Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers want to become stronger and bigger in the international market, they must adopt flexible strategies in the development of the international market.

Major reversal

On August 7, the General Administration of Customs of China announced the import and export data of my country's goods trade in July 2024. The data showed that in terms of RMB, China's imports in July increased by 6.6% year-on-year to 1,536.95 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.7%; exports in July increased by 6.5% year-on-year to 2,138.85 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 2.1%.

In terms of US dollars, China's imports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 215.91 billion US dollars, the previous value was -2.3%, an increase of 3.4% month-on-month; exports in July increased by 7% year-on-year to 300.56 billion US dollars, the previous value was 8.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3%.

In the first seven months of 2024, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 24.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Among them, exports were 14.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; imports were 10.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%; the trade surplus was 3.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%.

In terms of US dollars, in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 3.5 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3.5%. Among them, exports were 2.01 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4%; imports were 1.49 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%; and the trade surplus was 518 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.9%. Among them, China's automobile export data achieved a "major reversal", becoming one of the focuses of market attention. Data show that in July this year, China's automobile export value increased by 14.32% month-on-month, while in June this year, the export value of complete vehicles was 8.73 billion US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 17.16%. Analysts pointed out that the month-on-month growth rate turned from negative to positive to achieve a "big reversal", and China's automobile exports restarted the "accelerator" in July. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, my country exported 8.41 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, accounting for 59% of my country's total exports. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were 815.88 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year; integrated circuits were 640.91 billion yuan, an increase of 25.8% year-on-year; automobiles were 462.86 billion yuan, an increase of 20.7% year-on-year; mobile phones were 454.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year.

Lu Daliang, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that since the beginning of this year, my country's economic operation has been generally stable and steady, and foreign trade has maintained a stable and positive trend. In the first seven months, my country's import and export scale hit a record high in the same period in history. In July, imports and exports increased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate remained above 5% for four consecutive months.

Key turning point

On August 7, preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association showed that from July 1 to 31, the passenger car market retailed 1.729 million vehicles, down 2% year-on-year and 2% from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales so far this year reached 11.568 million vehicles, up 2% year-on-year; from July 1 to 31, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 1.956 million vehicles, down 5% year-on-year and 10% from the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale sales so far this year reached 13.708 million vehicles, up 4% year-on-year. Among them, new energy vehicle sales grew against the trend. Preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association showed that from July 1 to 31, the passenger car market retailed 879,000 new energy vehicles, up 37% year-on-year and 3% from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales so far this year reached 4.991 million vehicles, up 34% year-on-year; from July 1 to 31, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 955,000 new energy vehicles, up 30% year-on-year and 3% from the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale sales so far this year reached 5.575 million vehicles, up 30% year-on-year. According to this calculation, in July this year, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, reaching 50.84%.

At present, China's new energy vehicle industry is at a critical turning point. As the market tends to be saturated, product homogeneity is becoming more and more serious, the domestic market space is gradually shrinking, and the competition among enterprises is becoming more and more fierce, which directly leads to limited profit margins and slowing growth. Against this background, opening up overseas markets has become an inevitable choice for the development of China's new energy vehicle industry.

Analysts pointed out that in the face of overseas barriers, if Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers want to become stronger and bigger in the international market, they must adopt flexible strategies in international market expansion, and establishing production bases overseas may be a necessary step.

Many Chinese automakers have opened the curtain to seek new overseas solutions. In Hungary, vehicle manufacturers such as BYD and Great Wall Motors have formulated factory construction plans. BYD's Hungarian factory is scheduled to start production before 2026; in Spain, Chery Automobile will start production with local partners in a former Nissan factory in Barcelona in the fourth quarter of this year.

Professor Dudenhöffer, director of the Bochum Institute for Automotive Research in Germany and known as the "Godfather of Automobiles", previously said that China's automobile exports are expected to continue to increase in 2025. Judging from the development experience of other countries, once automobile exports reach a certain scale, it makes sense to build factories abroad. This helps companies reduce risks caused by exchange rate fluctuations or trade restrictions and tariffs. He believes that more Chinese automakers will set up factories in Europe in the next 10 years.